Tuesday, May 24, 2011

The Taiwan Question


The “Taiwan Question” refers to the very unclear status of Taiwan in the international community. And frankly, it has for some time now. For more than half a century, debate has raged as to whether Taiwan is an independent country or merely part of China. I’ve always known that there was a very peculiar relationship between China and Taiwan. As a history major I was subject to hearing so much about quarrels between the two that have taken place since Japan lost control of Taiwan following the conclusion of World War II. The Chinese Civil War initially pitted the Chinese Communists vs. Chiang Kai-Shek’s Nationalist forces. After being ousted from the mainland, Chiang fled to Taiwan and established his KMT party here. At that point the fighting came to a halt. Though since there was never a peace treaty or armistice signed, technically the civil war has never ended. Since the KMT’s arrival in Taiwan, the Taiwanese have been participating in a desperate struggle to distinguish themselves from their big brother across the Taiwan Strait.

However, I was under the impression that the gravity of this issue had fizzled out some over the past 20 years or so. Considering the economic ties that bind the two countries together, I figured that both China and Taiwan had kinda dropped the issue. I was wrong.

Recently I’ve begun to learn more about recent developments in this conflict. One of my new hobbies here in Taiwan has been regularly buying the Taipei Times (one of the few newspapers published in my native yingwen tongue). At first this was primarily motivated by my desire to do sudoko and crossword puzzles. But after glancing through a few articles, I soon found this method of learning about the news far more refreshing than the computer alternative. 

The recent news about Taiwan’s estranged relationship with China probably hasn’t been worldwide news, especially considering all the developments that have taken place in Africa and the Middle East the past few months. But here, it’s been daily front-page news. Contrary to what I previously believed, this conflict is still very alive. One of the bigger incidents was a few weeks ago, when it was discovered that the WHO, in a private memo, had referred to Taiwan as a “province of China”, firing up the emotions of President Ma and countless Taiwanese. Ma criticized the WHO for taking a two-sided approach towards Taiwan. Then he followed by placing some of the blame on the rival Democratic Progressive Party, insisting that they weren’t strong enough on this sensitive issue when they were in power before Ma. But then in an act of hypocrisy and contradiction, Ma refused to protest the annual WHA meeting, which many members of government insisted they do. Honestly, it’s rather surprising how interested I’ve become in all of this considering all the disenchantment I’ve felt towards all the bickering in U.S. politics. But for me all of this is fascinating because it feels like history is still happening; that countries are still fighting for independence for greater powers, even if it’s only been a “war of words” to this point.

President MaYing-Jeou...not exactly the most popular guy in Taiwan right now. Gee, where have I seen this before?

However, the Taiwan Question is also personally interesting because my motherland has also established itself as a key player, whether it initially intended to or not. In fact, historically the U.S. has seemingly always played a role in this conflict. Immediately following the communist PRC take-over of China and the Nationalist KMT’s departure to Taiwan, the U.S. cut off all relations with China and obviously, for ideological reasons consistent with their Cold War stance, supported Taiwan in any way it could. This trend slowly began to change in the ‘70s in the wake of a humbling defeat in Vietnam. In 1972, Nixon shocked the world and traveled to China, reinitiating contact between the two world-powers. And by 1979, President Carter officially stopped recognizing the ROC and initiated full diplomatic relations with the PRC (which sure made McCarthy roll over in his grave). Since then, the U.S. has been in the precarious position of trying to defend Taiwan as a democratic “entity” whilst at the same time not pissing off an economic ally they literally can’t afford to lose.

Not surprisingly, the U.S.’ dubious position on the Taiwan Question has come under a lot of criticism lately from both sides of the Taiwan Strait. And the issue here isn’t so much interesting as it is absolutely terrifying. The Obama administration is currently trying to decide whether or not to supply Taiwan with advanced military weapons, including F-16C/D aircraft. Beijing has threatened that U.S.-China relations will be severely strained if such an action is taken, while on the other hand Taiwan is desperate to ensure itself some kind of protection. Being such a miniscule island, and considering the proximity to China, Taiwan could be in serious trouble if China ever decided to take any sort of aggressive action. As it stands now, China has several garrisons and multitude of missiles aimed at Taiwan, likely enough to send this small island to the bottom of the ocean from whence it came in just a matter of minutes. Last Wednesday provided tangible evidence of just how real this threat was to the Taiwanese. At about 12:15 p.m., a siren let out a massive wail that wouldn’t end for another 20 minutes. Not knowing what the hell was going on, I was trying to decide whether to seek shelter from a potential bombing raid, stand under a doorway in case of an impending earthquake, or seek higher ground from a massive tsunami (though this was far from likely considering Taipei’s distance from the coast). Later that day I asked the Chinese teachers at my school what the fuss was all about. They replied matter-of-factly that what had proceeded was actually a common drill here in Taiwan, practiced regularly so that the Taiwanese know what to do in the event of a Chinese assault. Oh. Well that’s reassuring.

As you can see from Exhibit A here, Taiwan has plenty reason to have a complex about its size

To add a little more suspense to the story, the former head of the ROC's military intelligence department, Lo Hsien-che has now been sentenced to life in prison for allegedly spying and sending military secrets to China for the last 7 years. If Taiwan had developed any strategic defenses to protect itself from China (including an alleged Taiwan-US military communications project), there’s a strong possibility that Beijing’s already been informed.

As I stated earlier, I find this whole situation extremely fascinating. It’s captured my focus and imagination for the better part of a month now. Yet at the same time, I almost have no choice but to follow up on it. It frightens me some thinking that there is a possibility, albeit extremely unlikely, that China might do something extreme. And what frightens me more is thinking if the U.S. would actually do anything to help in such a scenario. Sure, the odds of this happening are probably 1 in a million…but all I’m saying is there’s a chance.